Introduction & Welcome

Welcome!   Site organization is still evolving.

• Links to other "WB" website.  See description of sites and links below to the Joshua Tree Ranch, Bonanza King Mine and others.. 
• Business,  Economic,  Management.    This site has an eclectic assortment of  writings on topics of potential general interest. Lots of graphs, data analysis, history of the world, global perspective - stuff I like.  Lots of show and tell.  This is not an investment site.  Many writings still not posted.   As more content is posted, I am confident the site will organized itself.  See menu links above and check out the new stuff. 
• Links for access to data room logins.  <restricted access>

Anyway!   When I reflect on my my life there are number things about human nature that continuously surprises and amazes me.  One is the seemingly unlimited capacity that intelligent people have for making simple things complicated; and two, how effective complicated arguments are at confusing people who actually have much more common sense.  Yes, I am also fooled by others, but just as often, I am fooled by myself.  Hence, I think is very important for all people to constantly be willing to question and challenge what is commonly believed to be true.  

Links to Other "WB" Website

• The Joshua Tree Ranch and Quail Springs Farm is a 60+ acre agricultural and agri-tourism project in Joshua Tree, California.  The Ranch which includes a "horse stable", "riding trails" and "equestrian facilities", operating since 2001.   Located just outside the main entrance to Joshua Tree National Park.  Property is operated by Wild West LLC.  See www.JoshuaTreeRanch.com

• Bonanza King Mine & Providence Ghost town.   Acquired in 2008, the Bonanza King Mine is perhaps the most historic silver mine in Southern California dating back to 1880.  This property is one of the few private land holdings within the Mohave National Preserve.   Preservation and redevelopment work is just beginning, but the project is still looking for technical assistance, financial support, and most important, a leader to help make this all happen.   See www.BonanzaKing.com

• The Kobe Journal    General interest site on "Kobe Living".  However, lot of new material on Japanese History and story about all the favorites.  Shotoku Taishi, Yoritomo, Yoshitsune, and other Minamoto clan member, Tarai no Kiyomori, Oda Nobunaga, Toyotomi Hideyoshi, Ieyasu Tokigowa.  .  www.KobeJournal.com  

• Alpha Research's Annual Energy Review.  This year's energy review (due out July 1) will be limited in scope given falling demand for the publication in the face of the collapsing of global commodity prices.  Specific contract research is still available upon request.   Despite weak commodity pricing, the insights from the 2009 Energy Review and earlier research still apply.  There is no doubt that global economic activity and wealth will be constrained by the availability of low cost natural resources.   World Energy Review

• Lisa Ann Barker.  Born Oct 9, 2009 is a joy to be with.  See her photo gallery Lisa Ann Barker at The Kobe Journal

More sites below. 

Consulting: Business, Finance & Economic

Other Sites

In addition to the websites listed above, the following is a list of businesses and organizations owned or sponsored by Mr. Barker that are intended to promote sustainable active, outdoor, rural or artistic lifestyles.

• Quail Springs Farm is a 20 acre community and experimental farm (and gardens) in Joshua Tree California.  Located adjacent to the Joshua Tree Ranch, just outside the main entrance to Joshua Tree National Park.    Project is still in its infancy.  See www.QuailSpringsFarm.Com. 

• Joshua Tree Climbers' Ranch is low cost climber's campground located in Joshua Tree, California, that is operated by local climbers with the assistance of the American Alpine Club.  In the parlance of our times, "rather ghetto".  www.ClimbersRanch.Com 

• Right-2-Ride  Activist conservation and outdoors recreation organization for preserving historical recreational livestock access to, and rights-of-way through, public lands.  Sponsored by the Joshua Tree Ranch and other concerned equestrian groups.     See www.Right-2-Ride.Com

• Rock Climbing Guides International  A rock climbing school that operated from 2002 through 2005..  Business model was based on leveraging national marketing and affiliation geared to specific demographic group.  The main school trained guides and operated in Joshua Tree National Park from 2002 through 2005.  Business was unable "to scale".  Brands, service marks, and web presence included RockClimbingGuides.Com, GayClimb.Com, WomenClimb.Com.

Anyway! 

Take for instance discussions with economic or business type, a group of which I sometime associate.  When they take about the economy they will show a graph showing sequential increases in the size of the economy and say "this is good".  When the line goes down, predictable they say "this is bad", sideways trending line also have a stigma of people bad. 

Reminds me of an on "Frankenstein movie", where Frankenstein said "Fire Bad".  He of course didn't like fire because not one had yet told him that he could use fire to burn down the home of the people who were trying to harm him.  Of course, we never see that ending because it didn't make a good drama.  Point is as Shakespeare write and I will paraphrase the man "Nothing is neither good not bad but thinking makes it so".

I for one think that the fascination sequential real GDP growth is actually quite stupid.  I think the reason why the USA is in so much trouble is that the sole goal of American politicians was to manage to this number.  The quality of the economy didn't mater - only size.  My experience is that size of things like (houses, cars, ...) only matters when it is not big enough.  Once it is big enough, it comes down to quality.   

12/2009 NEW YEARS COMMENT

As we begin 2010, the world in the midst of a financial crisis of proportions not seen since the great depression.  In the near term, peoples of the world are experiencing significant hardship. While the obvious culprits like subprime mortgages and credit default swaps are easy to identify and lambaste, I personally believe that this crises is 5 decades in the making.  Because most pundit think this only a small bump on the road of capitalism, I fear the government response will generally be inadequate for another few years and perhaps a decade. Many people are suffering.   Those who will suffer most will be those (individual or companies) either unwilling or incapable of understanding the seriousness of the new reality.  Sorry for the buzz killing comments.  Anyway I wish everyone all the best in dealing with financial crisis inspired adversity.   

In my opinion, the American Bankruptcy Experience is globally unique.  The DOJ estimate that fraud documents are present in 10% of the cases filed.  Pre-filing, I would guess that if you look hard enough (and you can) you would find it in 1/3 of the cases.  Question is, who want to look that hard?  As with  most crime - finding fraud is easy - proving fraud much harder.

Anyway. the typical business bankruptcy start as a "Debtor in Possession", which means management regains control of the assets.  Super easy to due, hence why it is common.  Unfortunately, the management mind set that contributed to the bankruptcy generally prevail even after the filing.  Hence, the likeliness of a favorable outcome for creditor at the hands of the debtor in low. 

Creditor don't have a lot of options.  A major "power play" in Bankruptcy usually comes early with creditor making a motion before the court for the "appointment on a trustee"   If a creditor can prove the debtor is either not honest in managing the company or reporting the financial results this motion could be granted.  However, if the debtor is organized, this court motion is resisted vigorously and fails. 

Next step - Rule 2004 allows "party of interest" to "take and examination" which is sort of like a deposition.  It also allows for the compelling the production of documents.  Hence creditors can be "major pain in the XXX", if they want to be.  60 days after the filing, there is a generally a 341(a) meeting.  As a creditor, if you haven't taken proactive action prior to the 341(a) meeting - you will probably be quite disappointed.

Best plan in my mind for creditor to initially follow is follows: 

1. Evaluate Cost / Benefit.  Very judgmental.  Soldiers in Bankruptcy cost money.  No way around it.
2. Be aggressive. Make judicious use of the available rule to get a court orders which compel the production of list of bank accounts, inventory, creditor.  If the rule is ignored, make a motion for contempt.
3. Get "Financial Advisor" involved early in looking at the financial information to look for obvious fraud.
4. Contact the Office of the US Trustee regarding the formation of a creditor committee.

These decisive actions will no doubt resulting in sufficient information to formulate a game plan.

Years ago I did an analysis of US Gross Domestic Product going back to the days of the "cowboys".  My conclusion from the study was the GDP in nominal dollar increase for 5 reason

• Easy to Quantify Primary Reasons / Drivers
  • Inflation - change in the measurement currency/
  • Population - Obviously the number get bigger from inflation 
• Easy to Isolate - Difficult to Quantify Primary Drivers
  • Quantum Changes in Industrialization.
  • Demographic shift from rural to urban work location.
  • Changes in credit or banking policies.  (i.e. 2006 US house boom)
• Secondary Reason
  • General Productivity Driver such are automation, computers
  • Ratio of workers to Population -  entry of women into the marketplace, aging population issues. 
• Super difficult to isolate reasons
  • ????

As with most of my work, the always lot of rocket science.  However, the simple truth remains that  over most all ten year period of times, inflation and population increases explain 90% of the variation in GDP.   USA inflation is merely a measurement anomaly and not common to all economies.  However, population growth cause by births but mainly immigration has been the fuel for the USA economy for many decades.   Per capital GDP has actually decrease is the last decade.

IMPORTANT NOTE:  I believe that one reason for the global financial crisis was the the world central banks (ex japan) have been monitoring the wrong metrics like GDP.  GDP is an aggregate number which does not speak to the "quality" of the economy.  

Japanese people are much more process driven then American.  This explains a lot about why Japanese business are so successful when process uniformity like in manufacturing is important or when quality is a major selling point.  It may also explain why Japanese companies experience more difficulty in fluid (quickly changing) situations where one can not rely on a process and internal procedure to keep it out of trouble.  The good news for Japanese companies is that "teaching" managers the basic of these skill is a lot easier than teaching non process driven people to be more process driven. 

Let me elaborate a bit.  In general I see "process focus" as very big plus.  However, I have seen it play out badly in third ways.

• First is a "over management" of simple tasks where the manager attempt to "get employees" to do a tasks "in a way" that they would do it.  This is a common trapping of middle managers.  Perhaps this is done to justify their position; perhaps it is required because without instruction the task would "get done" properly, perhaps it is really not necessary, or perhaps it manager does not have the discipline to refrain for acting important or perhaps I just don't understand the importance of "being done right" and "being done the right way".  Regardless, I see these employee are much more capable than managers give them credit for.

• Second is an "over reliance" on approved and time honored process even if the circumstances have changed. Definitely a recipe for disaster. 

• Third is a reluctance of "rank and file" employees to question why something is being done a certain way.  In Japan "the nail that stick out gets hammered in" or so the saying goes.  I see this as a direct a result of point number 1 above.  If managers do not allow initially allow employees the flexibility to accomplish a result using a method that the employee deems most appropriate under a given situation, there is probably no use in trying to revisit the issue.  Clearly managers do not believe employees should be responding to factors "occurring in the trenches in real time".   HENCE, a functional corrective feedback systems is commonly lacking.

SThese three unintended consequence are common to businesses in all cultures, but I have personally seen it more often here in Japan.  For example, in one troubled company I was at, lower level employees were doing things perfectly - except they were doing the wrong thing.  As noted above, feedback mechanism can be installed into administrative processes just like the can be installed in manufacturing processes. 

To accomplish this, managers may need to act in ways.............