Please be sure to see 2007 year end comments on USA Inflation as the
the information of Energy Prices and Home Prices is very useful in
understanding the challenges of the day. In this research note, we will explore historical inflation and
tie it into key events in US and global economic history that are
crucial in
understanding the modern world.
If I reflect over my career in finance and capital markets, I am
surprised to by how little knowledge professionals have regarding
of financial markets and economic history prior to the great depression.
It is as if this history was "ancient history" and because the world is
now so different, understanding the past is of no importance. To
the right is a chart of the historical US price levels broken out by
century. I make the following observations
1810s Price increases followed by deflation, presumably a
result of the American War of 1812 with England
1860s. Price increases followed by deflation, America
North verses the South Civil War
1910s, 20s, 30s Price increases presumable for WWI followed by
two decades of decrease.
1940s - Post WWII - price increase during the war never
subsided.
1970s - Rapid increase cause by changes in global crude oil
prices.
GLOBAL INFLATION
Below on to the left is the same chart plotted on a logarithmic
scale. Since America is still a young county, I thought perhaps it
useful to compare to much older country over longer period. Below
is UK inflation since 1264. It is interesting that inflation in
the scale here is historically quite unusual for both countries.
Post WWII Monetary Policy
July 1944. Agreement by 44 of the
Allied Powers (the Bretton Woods Agreement) which
established rules by which the industrial powers
would regulate money. Lots of stuff here
- IMF & the IBRD (now part of the world bank) - but
the key was an central bank obligations to that
maintained the exchange rate and plus or minus one
percent in terms of gold and the ability of the IMF
to bridge temporary imbalances of payments.
Post War. Aster the WWII, the U.S. dollars grow in
popularity as a currency for international currency
transactions. U.S. military
strength, the fixed relationship of the
dollar to gold ($35 an ounce), and the US government commitment U.S. government to convert dollars into gold made the dollar as good as gold.
In fact, the dollar was even better than gold: it
earned interest and it was more flexible than gold.
March 18, 1968. US congress repeal
the 25% backing of U.S. dollars by gold reserves.
1970. US Gold reserves decrease
significantly - from 55%
(to outstanding currency) to 22%.
August 15, 1971 US President
Nixon unilaterally terminates the Bretton Wood
Agreement.
Dec 31, 1971, Gold Trading at $44.20/ounce
Dec 31, 1972 Gold trading at $70.30/ounce and
still climbing.
January 1973 10 months before
the Arab Oil Embargo, the US stock market begins a
694 days decline where the major index would fall
around 45%. London Financial Times 30,
begins a 73% decline, the Hong Kong Seng Index,
begins a 83% decline.
February 1973, after a last-gasp
devaluation of the dollar to $44/ounce, the Bretton
Woods currency exchange markets closed, and
reopened in March in a floating currency regime.
Oct 1973. "Arab Oil Embargo".
Oct 6, 1973 Yom Kippur War. Oct 12 U.S. "overtly"
begins supplying arms to Israel. Oct 16,
1973 Middle east OPEC members raised posted prices 17% to
$3.65, announced production cuts, and an embargo on
deliveries to the US. Middle East oil
price had been rising ever since the US terminated
the Bretton Woods Agreement.
Saudi crude was $1 in 1970, and had increased to $3 just prior to the
Oil Embargo. Yes there was lots of drama
associated with the Embargo. However, the
embargo was as much (if not more) a revolt against
the dollar as it was a protest again western support
for Israel. My experience is that history is
written a certain way to obfuscate the true dynamics
of the situation.
Dec 1974. On Christmas day, after
over a year of aggressive action, OPEC cancels
January production cut. Diplomatic solutions
to the the Israel Problem starts to materialize
shortly thereafter in January 1975
BLOCK OF TIME
1695. The UK adopted a gold standard for
the settlement of international trade debt.
Other countries follow but not for 150 years or so.
1865. European countries form the Latin
Monetary Union.
1873. Glut of Silver in Europe.
Collapse of the free transferability of silver and
gold within the Latin Monetary Union. US
begins to regulate the transferability of silver and
gold.
1893. Panic thereof. Bimetalic metal
standard in the US collapses. US essentially
goes to a gold standard.
1945 - 1971 Gold / Dollar system
1971 - 1981 "Oil system". Oils lure
begins to end with the availability of high interest
earning US dollar denominated securities back by the
full faith and credit of the USA.
1981. Beginning of a "Age of Financial
Assets"
About the Author:
Consulting CFO & Advisory Services.
Mr. Barker is an experienced executive and consultant available to
work anywhere in the world on a contract basis. US
Citizenship; Japan Resident. Experienced as transitional senior
management or advisor in the M&A setting or troubled company
restructuring project.
Capable of taking control of company
until a more more long term management solution is available.
Also available to do contract research or due diligence used for supporting acquisition or investment
decisions or for developing specific corporate strategy.
Background.
Mr. Barker's background includes CFO and acting president of a
overseas subsidiary of large US public company; acquisition
integration consulting on international transactions; the CFO and acting
president of a small San Diego based gaming and US military
contractor; Manager of Mergers and Acquisitions for Ernst and Young;
Audit Manager with Deloitte and Touche; as well as employment with
investment banks Merrill Lynch and Shearson, Lehman, Hutton.
Formal education includes MBA from University of California, an MS
in Engineering from the University of Alaska, and a BS in Mechanical
Engineering from University of Washington. Mr. Barker is a
Certified Public Accountant (and Auditor)
licensed in the the State of California
(USA) and competent in US GAAP, SEC compliance,
IFRS and Japanese GAAP. Industry
experience is diverse.
Contact: All inquiries keep
strictly confidential. Please
e-mail for phone contact info. WallyBarker@Gmail.Com or
write 6-5-14 Mikagenakamachi, Kobe-shi Hyogo-ken 658-0054 JAPAN