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Global ( & USA) INFLATION

 
March 10, 2010  Kobe, Japan

Subject:  Additional Research into Inflation

Please be sure to see 2007 year end comments on USA Inflation as the the information of Energy Prices and Home Prices is very useful in understanding the challenges of the day.  In this research note, we will explore historical inflation and tie it into key events in US and global economic history that are crucial in understanding the modern world.

If I reflect over my career in finance and capital markets, I am surprised to by how little knowledge professionals have regarding  of financial markets and economic history prior to the great depression.  It is as if this history was "ancient history" and because the world is now so different, understanding the past is of no importance.  To the right is a chart of the historical US price levels broken out by century.  I make the following observations

  • 1810s  Price increases followed by deflation, presumably a result of the American War of 1812 with England
  • 1860s.  Price increases followed by deflation, America North verses the South Civil War
  • 1910s, 20s, 30s Price increases presumable for WWI followed by two decades of decrease.
  • 1940s - Post WWII - price increase during the war never subsided. 
  • 1970s - Rapid increase cause by changes in global crude oil prices.

GLOBAL INFLATION

Below on to the left is the same chart plotted on a logarithmic scale.  Since America is still a young county, I thought perhaps it useful to compare to much older country over longer period.  Below is UK inflation since 1264.  It is interesting that inflation in the scale here is historically quite unusual for both countries. 

 
Post WWII Monetary Policy
  • July 1944.  Agreement by 44 of the Allied Powers (the Bretton Woods Agreement) which established rules by which the industrial powers would regulate money.   Lots of stuff here - IMF & the IBRD (now part of the world bank) - but the key was an central bank obligations to that maintained the exchange rate and plus or minus one percent in terms of gold and the ability of the IMF to bridge temporary imbalances of payments.
  • Post War.  Aster the WWII, the U.S. dollars grow in popularity as a currency for international currency transactions.  U.S. military strength, the fixed relationship of the dollar to gold ($35 an ounce), and the US government commitment U.S. government to convert dollars into gold made the dollar as good as gold.   In fact, the dollar was even better than gold: it earned interest and it was more flexible than gold. 
  • March 18, 1968.  US congress repeal the 25% backing of U.S. dollars by gold reserves. 
  • 1970.  US Gold reserves decrease significantly - from 55% (to outstanding currency) to 22%.
  • August 15, 1971   US President Nixon unilaterally terminates the Bretton Wood Agreement.
  • Dec 31, 1971, Gold Trading at $44.20/ounce
  • Dec 31, 1972 Gold trading at $70.30/ounce and still climbing.
  • January 1973   10 months before the Arab Oil Embargo, the US stock market begins a 694 days decline where the major index would fall around 45%.  London Financial Times 30, begins a 73% decline, the Hong Kong Seng Index, begins a 83% decline.
  • February 1973, after a last-gasp devaluation of the dollar to $44/ounce, the Bretton Woods currency exchange markets closed,  and reopened in March in a floating currency regime.
  • Oct 1973.  "Arab Oil Embargo".  Oct 6, 1973 Yom Kippur War.  Oct 12 U.S. "overtly" begins supplying arms to Israel.   Oct 16, 1973 Middle east OPEC members raised posted prices 17% to $3.65, announced production cuts, and an embargo on deliveries to the US.   Middle East oil price had been rising ever since the US terminated the Bretton Woods Agreement.  Saudi crude was $1 in 1970, and had increased to $3 just prior to the Oil Embargo.  Yes there was lots of drama associated with the Embargo.  However, the embargo was as much (if not more) a revolt against the dollar as it was a protest again western support for Israel.  My experience is that history is written a certain way to obfuscate the true dynamics of the situation.
  • Dec 1974.  On Christmas day, after over a year of aggressive action, OPEC cancels January production cut.  Diplomatic solutions to the the Israel Problem starts to materialize shortly thereafter in January 1975

BLOCK OF TIME

  • 1695.  The UK adopted a gold standard for the settlement of international trade debt.  Other countries follow but not for 150 years or so.
  • 1865.  European countries form the Latin Monetary Union.
  • 1873.  Glut of Silver in Europe.  Collapse of the free transferability of silver and gold within the Latin Monetary Union.  US begins to regulate the transferability of silver and gold.
  • 1893.  Panic thereof.  Bimetalic metal standard in the US collapses.  US essentially goes to a gold standard.
  • 1945 - 1971  Gold / Dollar system
  • 1971 - 1981  "Oil system".  Oils lure begins to end with the availability of high interest earning US dollar denominated securities back by the full faith and credit of the USA. 
  • 1981.  Beginning of a "Age of Financial Assets"

 

About the Author:   

  • Consulting CFO & Advisory Services.    Mr. Barker is an experienced executive and consultant available to work anywhere in the world on a contract basis.  US Citizenship; Japan Resident.  Experienced as transitional senior management or advisor in the M&A setting or troubled company restructuring project. Capable of taking control of company until a more more long term management solution is available.   Also available to do contract research or due diligence used for supporting acquisition or investment decisions or for developing specific corporate strategy. 

  • Background.    Mr. Barker's background includes CFO and acting president of a overseas subsidiary of large US public company; acquisition integration consulting on international transactions; the CFO and acting president of a small San Diego based gaming and US military contractor; Manager of Mergers and Acquisitions for Ernst and Young;  Audit Manager with Deloitte and Touche; as well as employment with investment banks Merrill Lynch and Shearson, Lehman, Hutton.  Formal education includes MBA from University of California, an MS in Engineering from the University of Alaska, and a BS in Mechanical Engineering from University of Washington.  Mr. Barker is a Certified Public Accountant (and Auditor) licensed in the the State of California (USA) and competent in US GAAP, SEC compliance, IFRS and Japanese GAAP.   Industry experience is diverse.   

  • Contact:  All inquiries keep strictly confidential.  Please e-mail for phone contact info.  WallyBarker@Gmail.Com or write 6-5-14 Mikagenakamachi, Kobe-shi Hyogo-ken 658-0054 JAPAN

 

 

 

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