Most people can imagine that
population growth is important factor in
global economic growth,
demand on natural
resources such as oil,
problem of greenhouse gases like CO2,
degradation of the environment,
global warming.
Hence understanding how important it is a
bit more difficult. However, merely visualizing how population has
changed over time is actually shocking. Below is a graph of global
population trend over the last 2000 years. Understanding this
simple concept is extremely important in appreciating the context in
which political and business decisions
will need to be made. It also raises the important question -
how many people can the earth actually support?
Discussion
The purpose of this paper is not political, but I do want to point out
the political importance of this issue before moving on.
Two of the world's largest developed world political economies,
the US and EU, are "focused" and almost addicted to growth.
Unless these economies can continue to grow, problem of unemployment
rises and excessive debt become obvious to all. (current situation)
Japan is the 2nd largest of these developed economies and is the
exception. They have survived for 20 years (since 1990)
without population growth nor economic growth.
I believe US and Europe need to start to understand how the
govern their countries like Japan - without economic growth -
because eventually, the key driver behind much of the economic
growth - population is going to exceed the earth ability to sustain
a reasonable lifestyle for it citizens.
Enough political comments. In this "paper", I will eventually
cover the following topics
Historical and forecast growth rates and population
Factors that effect the forecast
Continued below.
About the Author:
Consulting CFO & Advisory Services.
Mr. Barker is an experienced executive and consultant available to
work on a contract basis. US
Citizenship; Japan Resident. Experienced as transitional senior
management or advisor in the M&A setting or troubled company
restructuring project.
Capable of taking control of company
until a more long term management solution is available.
Also available to do contract research or due diligence used for supporting acquisition or investment
decisions or for developing specific corporate strategy.
Background.
Mr. Barker's background includes CFO and acting
president of a Japanese subsidiary of US Fortune 1000 Company; acquisition
integration consulting on international transactions; the CFO and acting
president of a small San Diego based gaming and US military
contractor; Manager of Mergers and Acquisitions for Ernst and Young;
Audit Manager with Deloitte and Touche; as well as employment with
investment banks Merrill Lynch and Shearson, Lehman, Hutton.
Formal education includes MBA from University of California, an MS
in Engineering from the University of Alaska, and a BS in Mechanical
Engineering from University of Washington. Mr. Barker is a
Certified Public Accountant (and Auditor)
licensed in the the State of California
(USA) and competent in US GAAP, SEC compliance,
IFRS and Japanese GAAP. Industry
experience is diverse.
Contact: All inquiries keep
strictly confidential. Please
e-mail for phone contact info. WallyBarker@Gmail.Com or
write 6-5-14 Mikagenakamachi, Kobe-shi Hyogo-ken 658-0054 JAPAN
Population Distribution
In 2009, global population distributed as follows:
China 1.3 billion 19.6%, growing at 0.7% per annum
India 1.1 billion 17.3%, growing at 1.4% per annum
European G6 361 million 5.3% (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain,
Poland)
USA 309 million 4.6%, growing at 1%
Indonesia 231 million 3.4%, OPEC member that imports, largest
economy in SE Asia, growing at 1.1%
Brazil 192 million 2.83%, growing at 1.2%
Pakistan 169 million 2.5%, growing at 1.6%
Nigeria 154 million 2.3%, , growing at 2.0%
Russia 142 million 2.1%, decreasing at negative 0.5%